It was two months ago that the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him for missing a through-ball. During that period, with the team went six without a win, the question was if his displays were an indicator or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.
Per the data, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – but currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their star man to bail them out with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more versus United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the football into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. When the hero positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
