A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
